So Who Can Beat Tiger at Medinah?

How well is Tiger Woods playing these days? Well enough that we can reinstitute a measuring stick for this week’s PGA that we thought had been put away for good with the rise of Phil and Vijay and all the Australian—Tiger vs The Field.

After all, the last time a major was played at Medinah’s #3 Course, Tiger won it (the ’99 PGA), beginning a run of 5 out of 6 majors that ran through the ’01 Masters. If that weren’t enough to make him the favorite, he’s won his last two starts, and finished second the other start since July 1st (at the Western Open at Cog Hill, also in Chicagoland). And if you forget the fiasco at Winged Foot when he tried to make his first tourney back from the death of his father the U.S. Open, he’s finished first, third, fourth, first, second and first in his last six majors.

Here’s another huge statistical stick in Tiger’s bag that’s probably a lot more trusty than his driver: He’s won more than HALF the 17 majors he’s played on par-72 courses (9 of them), with a second at Hazeltine and a third at this year’s Masters.

And just to add more fuel to the Tiger bandwagon, Rees Jones’ recent renovation REMOVED 300 trees and ADDED 150 yards from the ’99 PGA, to a major-record 7,561 yards. Medinah’s been “Tiger-Proofed” about like Augusta. And in case you forgot, Woods led the field in driving distance in the ’99 PGA at 308 yards, 10 yards farther than the #2 long-knocker that year, Davis Love III.

Everyone remembers Sergio’s vibrant scissor-kicking chase of Woods that final Sunday in ’99. He drove it almost as far, actually hit a couple more greens and took the same number of putts, but still fell one shot short, though he outplayed Woods by one on the weekend. The rest of the chasers were an eclectic mix of players on the cusp of greatness. Some have grown into the role, others have shrunk. Stewart Cink and Jay Haas finished three shots back in’99. Nick Price was four back. Monty and Bob Estes were five off the pace, one ahead of a younger Jim Furyk and Steve Pate. Mike Weir was actually the third round co-leader with Woods before a disastrous 80, but he broke 70 in his other three rounds. He tied with Corey Pavin and David Duval, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Jesper Parnevik and Chris Perry for tenth.

So what kind of player can beat Tiger this week? In ’99, distance was more important than accuracy off the tee, as only Price and Furyk were in the top-10 in fairways hit among the Top-9 finishers, while Woods, Garcia and Cink were 3 of the 5 longest drivers. Putting wasn’t a huge determining factor. Greens-In-Regulation was. Of the Top-9 finishers, 8 were in the top-20 in GIR. Tiger hit 52 of 72 greens, 8th best in the field. Sergio was even better, hitting 54 greens. Long off the tee is good, getting to the greens is even better.

Who fits that profile? Tiger does. 10th in Driving Distance and #1 in Greens in Regulation. Among those who’ve been in the hunt in majors before (and Medinah seems to fit the profile of a course that doesn’t like unproven talent), Mickelson, Furyk, Vijay, Brett Wetterich, Arron Oberholser, John Senden (who’s #2 behind Woods) and Trevor Immelman are in the Top 25 in greens hit and have wins this year. Mickelson and Wetterich are in the Top 25 in distance too. Wetterich has the last spot on the Ryder Cup team (for now), a win (Byron Nelson) and a T-2 (Memorial) at respected venues, but hasn’t been in the top-20 since. Is he ready for this stage? He’s missed the cut in his only two other majors, the’98 Open and last month’s British.

That leaves Phil, who’s game should fit this course well, and who, only two months ago, was one good swing away from this being “his” year, not Tiger’s. In ’99 he also finished 2nd at the U.S. Open, but never broke par at Medinah, finishing T-57.

Accurate will substitute for long at Medinah, bringing in three names who aren’t real long, but are straight, have been hot lately, and played well in ’99—Furyk, Pavin and Weir. Weir obviously had great success at Medinah in ’99 when he was winless, now has 7 TOUR wins, a green jacket, and hung around the lead until Sunday at the Buick. Pavin had that remarkable win in Milwaukee and Medinah was his last major Top 10.

But watch out for Furyk, who was just 29 in ’99 with just three TOUR wins under his belt, none of them east of Las Vegas. He’s won 8 times since and there’s something about him and Chicago with his U.S. Open championship at Olympia Fields in ’03 and Western Open title last year. With the exception of Mr. Woods, nobody’s hotter, with 2 seconds and 2 fourths in his last 4 starts, two of them majors.

Tiger and Furyk will be partners in the Ryder Cup next month. Maybe they’ll be rivals on a Sunday in Chicago. Unless Tiger’s playing in a world of his own, again.